Mark Taber, CFA, is the Chief Investment Officer of the Taber Emerging Markets Fund, (TEMF). Taber uses a top-down approach to investing in countries. By interviewing government officials and the managements of foreign companies, Taber often gains economic and investment insights not yet fully understood by the foreign market. Taber is currently researching a potential investment in the emerging market country of Alphia. Taber travels to Ullom, the capital of Alphia, to discuss past, present, and future economic growth theory development with Dr. Raman Satish, managing director of the Alphia Economic Development Agency (AEDA).
Dr. Satish starts the conversation with Taber by discussing the three great growth cycles that the Alphian economy has experienced over the past 120 years: (1) the classical growth era, (2) the neoclassical growth era, and (3) the new growth era. Taber takes down the following statements from the meeting with Dr. Satish's meeting.
1. The Classical Growth Era of Alphia (1850-1950)
This hundred-year era was noted for periodic high levels of population growth and the sporadic introductions of technology. The average Alphianian's income was very modest and the standard of living remained almost the same over the 100-ycar period, except when new technology was introduced. Dr.
Satish cites the example of the one-time introduction of electricity to the Alphian economy from 1947 to
1950. E
2. The Neoclassical Growth Era o/Alphia (1951-1990)
During the neoclassical growth period, Alphia experienced a period of great economic growth. For example, from 1986 to 1990, Alphia's capital per hour of labor grew at a 9% annual rate, while real GDP grew at 7% per annum.
Also, Alphia was able to achieve economic growth rates and income levels comparable with many of its neighboring countries during the neoclassical growth period. Alphian scientists, together with the engineering department of the University of Ullom, provided access to the finest technology in the world. In addition, Alphia opened up its equity markets to outside investors and allowed its currency to float. Dr.
Satish believes that, given time, these capital market improvements should allow the Alphian economy to achieve an economic growth rate and per capita income level comparable to any country in the world.
To understand the role of technology in the growth of the Alphian economy (using neoclassical growth theory assumptions), the following table was developed to show the increased productivity of Alphian farmers using disease resistant grains. Assume new disease resistant grain technology was introduced into the Alphian farm economy at Point A.
3. The New Growth Era (1991-Today)
Since the Alphian energy crises of the late 1980s, the economy has been in transition. The AEDA goal is to have more than 50% of Alphian GDP coming from what we now call knowledge capital based industries by the year 2020. Given the large and growing population and their constant need for health care, the pharmaceutical industry was Alphia's first knowledge capital based industry. Dr. Satish believes that a focus on knowledge capital will enhance the long term growth prospects of Alphia's economy.
According to classical growth theory, what is the real wage rate for Alphiain 1950?
A. $5.00.
B. $4.76.
C. $8.57.
Answer: C
Explanation:
Explanation/Reference:
Explanation:
Under the classical theory of growth, a one-time increase in technology (electricity) shifts the productivity curve upward, so at each and every point a higher level of real GDP per hour is created. Labor productivity in 1950 is real GDP / hours of labor in that year = $180 / 21 = $8.57 per hour. Under the classical theory of growth, a one-time shift to the productivity curve will increase wage rates one time and thus act to increase the labor force. With capital and technology held constant, a growing population translates into a greater number of labor hours, which reduces capital per hour of labor and forces the movement along the new productivity curve until the previous level of subsistence real GDP or subsistence wage level is achieved.
(Study Session 4, LOS 14.d)
Neither condition would allow Alphia to increase the long-term subsistence level of wages. Under the classical theory of economic growth, an economy would have a temporary improvement in the labor living standards as the real wage rate climbed above the subsistence wage rate, but over time population growth would lower capital per hour of labor and drive real GDP per hour of labor back towards the subsistence wage level. Even a greater level of savings and investment creating more capital, under classical growth theory, does not prevent this slide back towards the subsistence level of wages. Anything that increases real GDP per hour of labor above subsistence level causes population growth that overwhelms the gains from increased productivity due to a greater level of capital. (Study Session 4, LOS 14.d)